The percentage of bitcoin’s circulating supply that last moved on-chain at least a year ago has declined to the lowest since October 2022, according to veri tracked by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
On Monday, 12.95 million BTC, equating to 65.84% of the circulating supply of 19.67 million BTC, remained unchanged for over a year, the lowest percentage since October 2022. The metric peaked above 70% with the debut of nearly a dozen spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in mid-January and has been falling ever since.
Since late December, the percentage of the circulating supply that has not moved in at least two years has declined to 54.% from 57.4%.
The decline likely represents profit-taking by investors who held coins for one year and over and marks a shift from the holding strategy seen through 2023.
The urge to sell likely stems from bitcoin’s massive 148% price surge since April last year and the 50% rally since the ETFs began trading in the U.S. At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $70,400. However, it’s difficult to ascertain the exact percentage of bitcoin that left the inactive supply has been liquidated in the market.
According to the veri tracking website MacroMicro, a decrease in the percentage of inactive BTC is a “leading indicator for the end of the bull run.”
Past veri, however, show that bull markets tend to peak as the percentage of inactive supply bottoms out and begin rising.
BTC’s percent of supply last active 1+ years ago vs price. (Glassnode) (Glassnode)