Sam Bankman-Fried will find out this week if he is potentially facing decades in prison. Judge Lewis Kaplan is set to sentence him for his conviction last year on two fraud charges and five conspiracy charges tied to the operation and collapse of FTX.
A Presentence Investigation Report, compiled by a probation officer, recommends a 100-year sentence. Attorneys for Bankman-Fried suggested 63 to 78 months. The Department of Justice urged 40 to 50 years, a proposal the defense called “disturbing” and “medieval.”
Bankman-Fried isn’t likely to face anywhere nearly as long as 50 years, let alone a century in prison. Lawyers I spoke to before his trial began estimated he might spend around two decades in prison if he was convicted. Additional lawyers I spoke to over the past week loosely agreed with that estimate, saying 20 to 25 years seems likely.
And, of course, Bankman-Fried and his team will almost certainly appeal the “guilty” verdict a dozen jurors handed down nearly five months ago.
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The presentence report, which was compiled by a probation officer, summarizes Bankman-Fried’s background, the case and how the facts of the case fit into sentencing guidelines.
Broadly speaking, Judge Kaplan’s sentence will need to take into effect what are known as 3553 factors. This will include a defendant’s history, background, upbringing, education, physical and mental condition, the facts of the case, any harm to potential victims and what kind of message the sentence might send to other individuals who might be considering or have the potential to commit similar crimes, said David Weinstein, a partner with Jones Walker.
This defendant’s history includes any criminal record (or lack thereof), any charity work they may have done, if they were abused or compelled to do things, if they have “an emergent family situation” that might lead to their committing crimes and other similar background factors, said Tama Kudman, a partner at Kudman Trachten Aloe Posner.
Beyond the presentence report and the prosecution and defense submissions, the judge might take into account the character and victim statements provided by the parties.
Presentence report
The presentence report itself – which isn’t a public document – recommended 100 years, according to the defense submission last month. It provides Bankman-Fried’s history – the upbringing and background details mentioned above – to the judge, alongside the calculation of the figure.
However, this figure is based purely on consulting guidelines, Kudman told CoinDesk.
“This was a mechanical calculator, not that Probation is necessarily saying ‘we think you should sentence him for 100 years,'” she said. “What Probation is saying is ‘in consulting guidelines, this is the conclusion, this is the numerical calculation.'”
However, the defense is arguing that the calculation is wrong, pointing to a lack of actual losses by the victims based on FTX’s bankruptcy estate estimation that creditors may be made whole or nearly whole. The prosecution is, to put it mildly, pushing back against that characterization, pointing to FTX creditors who are waiting to actually get any of their holdings back. Those creditors submitted