Many crosscurrents influencing prices, such as U.S. monetary policy expectations and supply overhangs, might be responsible for the weak correlation between election odds and BTC prices.
A ratio related to bitcoin futures and the volatility of options has more than doubled this year, signaling outsized levels of leverage and speculation.
The spread between yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury notes has resumed the recovery toward zero. Ether has a strong inverse correlation with the yield spread than bitcoin.